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After a miserable October, the setup for November is looking better. Barring a huge rally Tuesday, October will be the third-consecutive down month for the S & P 500 — that's unusual. 1 month for the S & P 500. It's just that stocks have sold off during earnings season because of the cautious outlook being projected on many earnings calls. The chances the S & P 500 would be down four months in a row is very small.
Persons: , That's, Nicholas Colas, Colas, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, It's, hasn't, Jonathan Krinsky Locations: DataTrek, Israel, BTIG
John Stoltzfus, the firm's chief investment strategist, said in a note to clients Monday that he was cutting his year-end 2023 target for the S & P 500 to 4,400 from 4,900. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has fallen from its late summer highs. Oppenheimer's new target is still above the average of 4,358 in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . The change comes after the S & P 500 entered a correction — a decline of 10% of more — last week. The S & P 500 remains 7% higher for the year.
Persons: Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Market, Survey Locations: U.S, East, Europe, Asia
HOUSTON (AP) — Coming a win shy of reaching the World Series would be considered a successful season for most teams. “We overcame a lot of stuff… so you hold your head up high, and you think about what you’ve accomplished versus what you’ve lost,” he said. Political Cartoons View All 1218 ImagesAfter coasting to the AL West title in the previous two seasons, the Astros spent most of this season chasing Texas in the standings. The Astros beat Minnesota in four games in the AL Division Series to reach the ALCS for a seventh straight season. Still dealing with this.”The Astros came on late to win the division despite dealing with a spate of injuries.
Persons: Martín Maldonado, , Dusty Baker, you’ve, , Justin Verlander, Cy Young, Verlander, “ That’s, “ There’s, Jose Altuve didn’t, Slugger Yordan Alvarez, Houston, Luis Garcia, Tommy John, José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr, Baker, Alvarez, Garcia, hadn’t, A.J, Hinch, I’m, You’ve, Alex Bregman Organizations: HOUSTON, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, AL West, Astros, Texas, Rangers, Houston, Minnesota, AL, Verlander, Mets, Star, New York Yankees Locations: Texas, Arlington, New York, . New York, Houston
Big Tech earnings This week is less about reading between the lines/through results, and contextualizing management comments, but rather it's about the market itself. AI - AI - AI! The options market is implying an earnings related move of 4.7%. Our options market sentiment score for GOOG/GOOGL is 80th percentile - which one may think of like a score/grade, so a B- in terms of options sentiment. Call open interest is 15% higher than put open interest, our options market sentiment score is 83% so B/B- territory.
Persons: ChatGPT, Bing, it's, AMZN, Mark Zuckerberg's, Zuckerberg, one's Organizations: Cambridge, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, BlackRock, Goldman, Equity, Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Inc, Investors, YouTube, Amazon, Google, Gaming, Activision, Logistics, Federal Express, CNBC, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, Mastercard, Merck, Co Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
A Monday evening note from Almanac editor Jeffrey Hirsch said that the stock market appears to be in the early stages of an end-of-year rally. SPY YTD mountain The S & P 500 is up since May, but did suffer a late-summer swoon. The buy signal could help offset the multiple negatives working against the stock market, including bond yield volatility and the conflict in the Middle East. The Almanac's portfolio changes show an expectation of a broad market rally. The moves include buying the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) , SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) as well as the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) .
Persons: Jeffrey Hirsch, SPDR, Russell Organizations: Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Trust, P Biotech, Consumer, Vanguard, Index
Oil and natural gas prices traveled divergent paths this week, resulting in a mixed picture for the Club stocks Coterra Energy (CTRA) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). In Thursday's session alone, natural gas prices jumped nearly 7%, as traders reacted to U.S. government data that showed a smaller-than-expected storage build. For the week, through Thursday's settle, natural gas has climbed 8.1%, building on last week's 11% advance. Natural gas on Friday morning jumped another 1.5%. Coterra's revenues are roughly a 50-50 split between oil and natural gas.
Persons: Brent, WTI, Paul Sankey, Sankey, Goldman Sachs, Coterra, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, David Mcnew Organizations: Club, Coterra Energy, Natural Resources, Texas Intermediate, Traders, Northern, U.S, CNBC, Street Journal, Exxon Mobil, ., Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, Getty Locations: U.S, Thursday's, Saudi Arabia, Russia, WTI, Friday's premarket, Coterra, China
I toured 160 Water Street, a major office-to-residential conversion in New York City. That's the whole point at 160 Water Street. In a past life, 160 Water Street was an office building in New York City's financial district. Standing next to 180 Water Street — an office building that was converted into units back in 2017 — 160 Water Street is preparing to welcome tenants by the end of the year. I got the opportunity to tour the building and saw just how much the rise of remote work is shaping how we use our spaces.
Persons: , that's, That's, Dan Garodnick, It's Organizations: Service, Colliers, New York City's Department of City Planning, Vanbarton Group Locations: New York City, New York
Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia
Global stocks notched their second-worst month of the year in August, with the MSCI broad aggregate of world indexes dropping 2.96%, according to LSEG data. This has carried into a tepid start to September trade, but Madison Faller, global investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in a research note on Friday that 2023 can still finish strong. "While there are still things we don't know, the read from the key players — central banks, Wall Street, Main Street and the C-suite — suggests that the outlook feels brighter today than it did a year ago," Faller said. "With less worry about the near term, more firms are starting to focus on how they can continue growing in the long term. Technology stocks, particularly those with a heavy focus on AI, have driven a huge portion of the market's gains so far this year.
Persons: Madison Faller, Faller, haven't, Jerome Powell, Powell didn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, Peter Oppenheimer, we're, Tesla Organizations: NYSE, NYSE Stock, JPMorgan Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Global Equity, CNBC, Nvidia, Facebook Locations: Wall, China, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket positives won't outweigh negatives if interest rates keep rising, says Jim Cramer'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer talks the September swoon and what headwinds the markets face.
Persons: Jim Cramer
ETF Edge, September 6, 2023
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
RELATED VIDEOS16:00 ETF Edge, September 6, 202304:07 Possible cannabis reclassification fuels fund optimism04:28 What now after SEC punts post-Grayscale ruling? 07:30 Shakey September ahead? 02:27 ETF Edge: September swoon ahead? 05:20 How the SEC could respond to Grayscale's bitcoin ETF win
Organizations: Edge, SEC
Shakey September ahead?
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
RELATED VIDEOS07:30 Shakey September ahead? 04:07 Possible cannabis reclassification fuels fund optimism04:28 What now after SEC punts post-Grayscale ruling? 16:00 ETF Edge, September 6, 202302:27 ETF Edge: September swoon ahead? 05:20 How the SEC could respond to Grayscale's bitcoin ETF win
Organizations: SEC, Edge
What now after SEC punts post-Grayscale ruling?
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
RELATED VIDEOS04:28 What now after SEC punts post-Grayscale ruling? 04:07 Possible cannabis reclassification fuels fund optimism07:30 Shakey September ahead? 16:00 ETF Edge, September 6, 202302:27 ETF Edge: September swoon ahead? 05:20 How the SEC could respond to Grayscale's bitcoin ETF win
Organizations: SEC, Edge
Possible cannabis reclassification fuels fund optimism
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
RELATED VIDEOS04:07 Possible cannabis reclassification fuels fund optimism04:28 What now after SEC punts post-Grayscale ruling? 07:30 Shakey September ahead? 16:00 ETF Edge, September 6, 202302:27 ETF Edge: September swoon ahead? 05:20 How the SEC could respond to Grayscale's bitcoin ETF win
Organizations: SEC, Edge
ETF Edge: September swoon ahead?
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailETF Edge: September swoon ahead? CNBC’s Courtney Reagan on 'ETF Edge' with Vettafi's Tom Lydon and Amplify ETFs' Christian Magoon, discuss the September setup for ETFs.
Persons: CNBC’s Courtney Reagan, Vettafi's Tom Lydon, Magoon
Morning Bid: Global business splutters, dollar surges
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But the U.S. jobs picture underscores the "soft-landing" consensus - something Tuesday's updates on global business surveys from last month suggest may not be the case elsewhere. Even though messy workouts of China's ongoing property bust were some relief - as real estate giant Country Garden made some last minute dollar bond payments - the funk in the wider economy clearly persists. That saw the euro fall back against the dollar to levels not seen since mid-June. But that provided little solace to sterling , which was also pummelled by the dollar to its lowest since June. The sour business polls took some heat out of the recent oil price rebound , but did little to calm the long end of the bond market.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, disinflation, Philip Lowe, Glazer, Luis de Guindos, Isabel Schnabel, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reserve Bank of Australia, Stock, Wall, English football, Manchester United, Sunday, Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China
Late last summer, veteran technical strategist and hedge fund manager David Lundgren urged his clients to bet against US stocks. "That pile of wood is just sitting there waiting for a catalyst, and I think it's coming," Lundgren said. "It's not our job to agree with the market's assessment of the fundamentals," Lundgren said. 5 sectors with strong momentum right nowMany investors remain concerned about a possible recession, but Lundgren has learned to lean on market trends instead of his gut. Coincidentally — or not — 11 of the names were in one of the five sectors that Lundgren highlighted.
Persons: David Lundgren, who's, we're, Lundgren, isn't, MOTR, I'm, there's, Guess what's, Industrials, Organizations: MOTR Capital Management & Research, Dow Jones Market, MOTR Capital Management, Research, Investors, Bank Locations: cyclicals
CNN —In a move surprising even for a mercurial figure like Vivek Ramaswamy, the millionaire businessman this past week took a backhanded swipe at fellow Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley. For many Indian Americans and many Anglo Indians like me, Ramaswamy’s line of attack might not seem particularly surprising. With his jab at Haley, Ramaswamy almost certainly was not looking to ingratiate himself with Indian Americans. And on the whole, surveys show that nearly seven in 10 Indian voters in the United States identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This did Ramaswamy no favors with Indian voters, especially Indian women.
Persons: Jeff Vasishta, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Alex Garcia, Nimarata Nikki Randhawa, Narendra Modi, , Ramaswamy –, Haley, Ramaswamy, Barack Obama, Haley —, Ramaswamy —, — weaponized, ingratiate, Biden, Kamala Harris, , Donald Trump, Obama, won’t, We’re Organizations: Rolling Stone, Billboard, Variety, CNN, Democratic National Convention, Indian, UN, Republican, Trump, Twitter, Facebook Locations: Rolling, South Carolina, British, India, United States, Silicon Valley, Milwaukee, New York, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPosition for the economy to 'swoon', then rebound, says StoneX's Kathryn Rooney VeraHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: StoneX's Kathryn Rooney Vera, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Like many college graduates, Hattie Kolp needed two major things: a job and somewhere to live. Born and raised in New York, Ms. Kolp always knew she’d be back. California living, she decided after four years attending college outside Los Angeles, wasn’t for her. So with no money and no job, she did what any other 20-something would do: She moved back in with her parents. And Ms. Kolp is still there.
Persons: Hattie Kolp, Kolp, she’d, wasn’t, , — “, Locations: New York, California, Los Angeles, TikTok
Stocks swoon, dollar firms as Powell speech looms
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Crude oil found its footing around one-month lows, but remained on course for a second weekly decline amid a firmer dollar and simmering China-centred worries about global growth. "However, there is also no real reason for Powell to strike a dovish tone," he added, "and that could mean an ugly end to the week for stocks, while the dollar shines." Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged tentatively back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, trading as strong as 146.21. In energy markets, crude prices rose slightly on Friday, but remained on track for weekly declines of between 1.5-2.5%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Kazuo Ueda, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Joseph Capurso, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, People's Bank of, Bank, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Advantest, Fed, Boston Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Yahoo, U.S, Bank of Japan, CBA, Treasury, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, . U.S, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Tokyo, Jackson
In theory, these higher interest rates push down demand and slow inflation by forcing companies to cut prices to attract stretched-thin customers. And Americans have been spending right through the higher interest rates: Personal consumption expenditures and retail sales numbers have continued to forge upward. But eventually, this attitude will wane as people realize that the higher rates aren't a flash in the pan. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. It's the same story every time, both Kantrowitz and Rosenberg say: Investors are bad at pricing in a recession before it unfolds.
Persons: Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Milton Friedman, Bob Doll, Doll, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Tom Essaye, Essaye, Granger, Kantrowitz, Jerome Powell, William Edwards Organizations: Philadelphia Fed, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Consumer, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Silicon Valley Bank, Rosenberg Research, Fed, Auto, Wall, CPI, Institute for Supply Management's, Treasury, Royal Bank of Canada Locations: Silicon, YOLO
The fund is up 21% month to date, as of Aug. 17, according to FactSet. PFIX 1M mountain The Simplify PFIX fund has surged in August. The Simplify fund uses over-the-counter derivatives, including so-called "swaptions," in an effort to guard against rising interest rates and benefit from volatility in fixed income markets. The August rally for PFIX is reminiscent of 2022, when it rose nearly 90% as the Federal Reserve aggressively hiked rates. PFIX now has $218 million in assets under management, and has had trading volume above 100,000 shares shares per day in August, according to FactSet.
Persons: PFIX Organizations: Federal Reserve, SEC
It's no secret that market leadership has become more concentrated over the years, but this is ridiculous. That one company is Microsoft , the behemoth with the $2.35 trillion market cap and, it seems, a position in the driver's seat on where the market goes next. In his weekly breakdown of money flows through the financial markets, BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett said Microsoft needs to reassert itself or face dragging down the rest of the stock market. MSFT YTD line Microsoft as market leader That's why it holds such a pivotal position in determining how things go from here. Harnett noted that the equity put/call ratio has hit its highest point since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March, "a bad sign if stocks can't hold hold here."
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, That's, Yul Brynner, Brynner, Chris Adams, gunfighters, Harnett, swoon Organizations: Bank of America, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Thursday's, Silicon
Advancements in investment products and trading platforms haven't altered long-standing investing fundamentals, according to neurologist and best-selling financial author William Bernstein. The first pillar of investing according to Bernstein is theory, in which he stressed that risk and return are "joined at the hip." His second pillar is history. Bernstein's final investing pillar is business. This idea is one of the reasons Bernstein feels positive about the exchange-traded funds business and its role in reducing fees.
Persons: William Bernstein, Bernstein, Bob Pisani, Serena Williams, Covid swoon
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